Academic Research
My research is at the intersection of energy, environment, and development. I combine economic theory, causal inference, and AI methods on large datasets to answer policy questions.
Publications
Revisiting the Last Mile: The Development Effects of a Mass Electrification Program in Kenya
Abstract
Access to electricity remains a central priority in development policy, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which accounts for over half of the global population without reliable power. This study examines the socio-economic impacts of Kenya’s Last Mile Connectivity Project (LMCP), a large-scale electrification initiative aimed at expanding grid access by connecting households and businesses within 600 meters of distribution transformers. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, we evaluate the program’s effectiveness in increasing electricity access and its broader development outcomes. Our findings show that the LMCP significantly improved household connectivity, leading to a substantial shift from off-grid energy sources to grid electricity. While this transition resulted in modest yet positive economic effects, most notably increased household consumption, there was no significant impact on employment, income, or women’s empowerment. These limited economic gains appear to stem from persistent challenges such as unreliable power supply and financial constraints that hinder productive electricity use. Interestingly, we find that the positive impact of LMCP on consumption is driven by households connected earlier, suggesting that the impact of the program might increase over time. While our results highlight the role of electrification in improving living conditions, they also suggest that access alone may not be sufficient to drive broader economic transformation, and benefits take time to accrue.
Electricity Outages and Air Pollution in Delhi
Abstract
This paper examines an overlooked consequence of an unstable electricity supply: air pollution. Using a unique dataset with high-frequency records of outage events and pollution, we find that outages lead to a 0.4% and 1.3% increase in hourly NO₂ and NO concentrations and a 0.4% increase in PM10 levels. This is likely attributable to the widespread use of highly polluting backup diesel generators. The environmental cost of outages exceeds the private cost for users when backup generators are adopted. Welfare analysis using bunching estimation highlights the importance of incorporating environmental benefits in the evaluation of policies aimed at mitigating outages.
Does Electrification Cause Industrial Development? Grid Expansion and Firm Turnover in Indonesia
Abstract
I ask whether electrification causes industrial development. I combine newly digitized data from the Indonesian state electricity company with rich manufacturing census data. To understand how electrification can cause industrial development, I shed light on an important economic mechanism: firm turnover. In particular, I study the effect of the extensive margin of electrification (grid expansion) on the extensive margin of industrial development (firm entry and exit). To deal with endogenous grid placement, I use an instrumental variable approach exploiting the location of colonial electric infrastructure and the need for an interconnected grid on the island of Java. I find that electrification causes industrial development by increasing the number of manufacturing firms, manufacturing workers, and manufacturing output. Electrification increases firm entry rates, but also exit rates, and entry accounts for most of the increase in output. This is consistent with electrification lowering entry costs, increasing competition, and forcing unproductive firms to exit more often.
Awarded the 2020 CESifo Distinguished Affiliate Award in Climate and Energy Economics. Covered by VoxDev, the IGC blog, the STICERD Review, and Energy for Growth Hub.
Working Papers
Carbon Footprints of European Manufacturing Jobs: Stylized Facts and Implications for Climate Policy
Air Pollution Trading on the European Carbon Market